Global warming

Everyone seems to be holding themselves out as experts on global warming these days, even those who patently are not. Here is my take on it. It is a three pointer so bear with me.

1. There is a graph which has been published ad infintum that shows how the earth's temperature has varied with the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere over the past few thousand years. When CO2 is high, so is temperature. Most scientists agree that this occurs since carbon dioxide enhances the natural greenhouse effect (trapping of solar radiation) of the atmosphere. I believe all this and so would expect the earth's temperature to rise as atmospheric CO2 levels rise.

2. I don't think anyone knows how fast the temperature will rise and what effect that will have. Many learned scientists, including those from the IPCC (International Panel for Climate Change), have tried to predict what is going to happen, and there are many disagreements. The IPCC don't help themselves by trying to predict far into the future. As has been pointed out, notably by Nigel Lawson in his book "An Appeal to Reason", attempting to predict how the world will look in 100 years is farcical.

I think one of the problems with predicting future climate is that the earth's atmosphere is a complex convection system, complex enough that we cannot accurately predict the weather more than a few days in advance. We can make broad generalisations about what might happen in future, but the effect of intial uncertainties, potential feedbacks (eg melting of ice reducing albedo and enhancing warming) and lack of knowledge of how humans will react to the problem, in my view really mean that the future is very uncertain. There are however a number of potentially damaging outcomes of global warming, which in the worst case could see major human (and natural) catstrophe.

3. So we have something happening, the outcome of which is uncertain but can reasonably be supposed to be unpleasant. So what do we do? My approach is based on Pascal's wager. Pascal orignally made his comments about belief in God, but belief in global warming is now somewhat analogous to the position in which Pascal found himself when considering whether to believe in God.

In summary:

a) If we believe that the earth wil be destroyed through climate change and we are correct, our actions now to reduce CO2 will have saved the planet.
b) If we are wrong, we will have lost little through our actions.
c) If we do nothing now in the belief that climate change is not a danger and we are correct, we will be slightly better off.
d) If we do nothing now and we are wrong in that belief, there is trouble ahead.

Simple really. Something bad (possibly catastrophic) might happen in the future and we can take action now that will probably stop it. I think we should take that action.

Our picture today is of Monsal Dale, a delightful valley in the Derbyshire Peak District where I walked yesterday. There were plenty of snow drops around but little other proper signs of Spring. In Cononley the first few lambs are now appearing. It is still a mystery how such charming lambs turn so quickly into miserable-looking sheep.

Sunday morning rant: Radio 5 constantly seeks higher and higher levels of inanity. This morning we have been treated to a man who thinks that Dachshunds weigh 1.5 grams (and rejected the idea that they may be 1.5 kilos as being preposterous) and a woman waffling on without purpose about mortgages and being told that the concept of an endowment was too technical. I appreciate that this is supposed to be a relatively light-hearted piece of radio but there seems to be no differentiation between light-hearted and stupid.

A modest man

From time to time, someone is taken away from you, and you realise that the person you had previously vaguely regarded as constant was in fact ephemeral. It is only then that you begin to reflect on their contribution to the world.

The above is not meant as an emotional eulogy to the deceased, just a bald statement of fact. The man I have in mind is Bill Frindall, whose name is unrecognisable to waste swathes of the population. He was a cricket scorer who appeared on the BBC's Test Match Special. There are some charming moments from his career on the BBC website, which capture the essence of the understated and modest way in which he went about his work. I suppose it is this understatement and the element of geekiness which appeal to me; he was a man fascinated by his work and who combined it superbly into the programme. He may well prove to be irreplaceable.

On a more positive note, the rugby season starts this Friday. Leeds, Superleague Champions for the last two years and World Club Challenge winners, will start against Celtic Crusaders, the new team in the league from South Wales. I expect Leeds to show little mercy and give the Welsh a heavy beating. I do though think it is fantastic that clubs in expansion areas are in Superleague; the game will be strengthened as a result.

The weight of the world upon his shoulders

Just how high is the expectation which has been placed upon this man?

Unless he delivers an economic miracle, world peace and an end to global warming within the next six months, some people are going to label him a failure. It seems like a measure of ex-president Bush's low level of popularity that this fairly inexperienced man (though with a gift for oratory) is treated as the Messiah. One thing on his side is the goodwill he seems to generate, from the grandees of his party to President Ahmadinejad of Iran.

On less worldly matters, I have snowdrops appearing in my garden. I am not however the world's biggest snowdrop fan. I want flowers to signify the begining of Spring, but these seem to appear in mid-Winter and so don't hold the same excitement.

I did a beautiful walk in Wensleydale at the weekend with my godson Jamie and his Dad. We went from Bainbridge to the small lake of Semerwater, a delightful if chilly stroll. I wore a particularly stylish woolly hat, which was roundly mocked by the others until we were walking straight into a cold wind, when I am pleased to report that the mocking turned to envy.

Killing the trees?

I am suffering a bit of back ache today, brought on partly by my advancing years but mainly by the fact that I spent most of yesterday pulling up birch and willow saplings from a wild flower meadow at Otley Wetlands nature reserve, picture below. It often seems strange that much conservation work involves pulling up or cutting down. The reality is that to maintain a diversity of habitats you need to stop invasive species taking over. This is the second year I have been involved in this task and am looking forward to visiting in the summer and seeing the orchids and other species which inhabit the reserve.


Continuing today's flowery theme, I planted some bulbs in my tiny garden back in October, and I am pretty excited to relate that they have started to come up. I am hoping for a riot of Spring colours in a few weeks.

Paint it white to save the planet

There were two interesting articles in the generally excellent G2 section of The Guardian today, both of which seemed to capture the zeitgeist but in very differing ways.

First there was an article concerning one of the so-called geo-engineering solutions to global warming, though one which sounded eminently sensible compared to some of the other suggestions. The idea was to paint all roofs white, to increase reflection and reduce absorption of solar energy. It seems such a simple concept that it is surprising that it has not received more publicity. It was pointed out in the article that this was not a solution to global warming; it did nothing to reduce CO2 emissions, and so was more of a temporary mitigator. Even so, given some of the more extreme consequences of global warming that have been suggested, a bit of temporary mitigation would be very welcome.

You can read a summary of the full article here, highly recommended.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2009/jan/16/ethicalliving-climatechange

The second article was a brief piece concerning the acceptance speech given by Kate Winslet on receiving some worthless gong the other night. For those who did not hear her, she went for the worst kind of Paltrow-esque faux-excitement and pretending to be overcome. This is not something which has increased my respect for her. Without wishing to philosophise, I do wish that people would keep things like winning such awards in perspective; I think that failure to do so shows a rather narrow world view.

Again no relevant photo, so you will have to make do with this shot of your correspondent descending into the valley of Littondale, North Yorkshire.

Work, PE and Penyghent

I had a bad attack of work-fear last night; the idea of returning to the office after a fairly stimulating two weeks was complete anathema. In reality the problem was all in my perception, work was fine (even rewarding) and it was good to see everyone again. If I had a pound for every time I worried about something so inconsequential I could lead a one-man consumer boom and bring the world economy back to rude health.

I went to the gym this evening and the New Year’s resolution crowd were there in their hundreds, all in new PE kit with little idea of what to do. It is certain that by mid February they will almost all be gone and it will be the same regulars that I see each week. I struggled through what should have been a fairly easy rowing session; not a good sign only five weeks from my first indoor rowing event of the season in Manchester.

It strikes me that the above entries don’t lend themselves to photos, so here for your delectation is a charming shot of Penyghent in the Yorkshire Dales on a cold and snowy morning a few weeks ago.